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Buddhist wisdom on why we stress about stress and the surprising math of why 85% of what you’re worried about right now may never even happen.
My 7-year-old son just got expelled from spring break program before it even started.
Not suspended. Expelled.
The details aren’t important (and he might read this newsletter someday), but let’s just say the after-school program staff had seen enough.
As we walked home after the awkward parent-teacher conference, I was cycling through all the emotions:
- Embarrassment (what will other parents think?)
- Frustration (what am I supposed to do with him all week?)
- Fear (is this the beginning of a pattern?)
Then my son looked up at me and said: “It’s ok, Dad. I’m still going to have a good week.”
And then asked for a snack. This made me even more annoyed; where was the remorse? Needless to say, no snack was provided.
The First Arrow vs. The Second
This moment perfectly illustrates what Buddhists call the Second Arrow Principle.
The first arrow is unavoidable pain, something that happens TO you.
- My son got expelled
- Your client cancels a contract
- Your flight gets delayed
- Your proposal gets rejected
The second arrow is what you shoot at yourself afterward. The rumination, catastrophizing, and emotional spiraling.
That second arrow? It’s optional.
The Math of Unnecessary Suffering
Cornell researchers found that 85% of what we worry about never actually happens.
And of the 15% that does happen, 70% of participants reported it either “wasn’t as bad as expected” or they “learned something valuable” from the experience.
This means we’re wasting massive mental bandwidth on outcomes that:
- Probably won’t happen
- Won’t be that bad if they do
- Might actually benefit us in the long run
Fortunately, my mother-in-law literally flew in to save the day, arriving just in time to watch him during the week he was supposed to be at camp.
Sometimes the solution appears before you even finish processing the problem.
Catching Your Second Arrow Mid-Flight
Here’s how to stop shooting yourself twice:
1. Name the First Arrow Identify exactly what happened without interpretation. Just the facts. “My son was expelled from program” not “My son is becoming a troublemaker”
2. Separate Response from Reality Your emotional reaction isn’t the situation itself. It’s your prediction about what the situation means. Ask: “What story am I telling myself about this?”
3. Find the Hidden Opportunity My son’s expulsion became a chance to implement better structure and boundaries. I used the week to rebuild his routine and set clearer expectations.
The Only Way is Through
Whether you shoot that second arrow or not, you still have to deal with the first one.
The difference? Dealing with one arrow is manageable. Dealing with two is exhausting.
So keep this in mind.
Whatever you’re stressing about right now has an 85% chance of never happening at all. And if it does happen, it will likely be less painful than you’re imagining or teach you something valuable.
Next time life hits you with an unexpected arrow, catch yourself before you reach for your own bow.
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